La professora Belinda Medlyn, del Departament of Biological Science de la Macquarie University durà a terme un seminari el proper 29 de maig a les 12h a la Sala de Graus II de la Facultat de Ciències de la UAB.
Advancing process-based models of forest responses to climate change: the assumption-centred modelling approach
Prof Belinda Medlyn
Process-based models of forest ecosystems are widely used to predict the likely future impacts of environmental change. However, models frequently differ in their predictions, leading non-modellers to ask which model is “best”. I argue that we should consider models not as entities, but as collections of assumptions about individual processes, and we should instead be asking which assumptions are best. Model predictions can and should be understood by relating them back to their underlying assumptions. Understanding the effect of individual assumptions allows us identify major uncertainties in the models and work towards improving them. I will show how this assumption-centred approach to modelling is being used to improve our understanding of the effects of rising CO2, temperature and water availability on forest function.